Español
(888) 889 3499 Fax: (786) 540 3499
The United States Department of Commerce has published the 'advance' estimate of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of the year. According to this data, the US economy has experienced a less pronounced slowdown than expected, growing at a rate of 3.3%, compared to the 4.9% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Although the consensus expected an advance of 2%, this result shows that the economy continues to show signs of growth, although at a slower pace.
Factors that affected GDP growth
The slowdown in GDP in the fourth quarter of the year was mainly due to a slowdown in several sectors. Among them, private investment in inventories, federal government spending, residential fixed investment and consumer spending stand out. In addition, imports also slowed down. Despite this, the country's economy continues to grow thanks to increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, non-residential fixed investment, federal government spending, private inventory investment and residential fixed investment.
Rising consumer spending
Rising consumer spending was one of the main drivers of economic growth in the fourth quarter. This increase was reflected in both services and goods. Within services, the main contributors were food and accommodation services, as well as healthcare. Regarding goods, the increase was linked to the increase in other non-durable goods, recreational goods and vehicles.
Federal Government Spending and Investment in Inventories
As for federal government spending, the increase was led by non-defense spending. On the other hand, the increase in investment in inventories was driven by the wholesale trade industries.
Price index and personal savings
The gross domestic purchases price index rose 1.9% in the fourth quarter, down from the 2.9% increase recorded in the previous quarter. In addition, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased by 1.7%, maintaining the level of the previous period. As for personal savings, it reached $818.9 billion, and the personal savings rate stood at 4%.
Outlook for the first quarter
According to Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts, the outlook for first-quarter GDP points to a moderate slowdown relative to the fourth quarter. However, consumption is expected to increase at a rate of more than 2%.
Unemployment claims
In relation to unemployment claims, an increase has been recorded in the week ending January 20. Applications totaled 214,000, representing an increase of 25,000 compared to the previous week, which was revised upward to 189,000 units. These data exceeded consensus expectations, which anticipated around 200,000 requests.
Higher unemployment rates and larger increases and decreases in claims
The highest unemployment rates were reported in New Jersey, Rhode Island, Minnesota, California, Alaska, Massachusetts, Illinois, Puerto Rico, Montana and Washington. The largest increases in initial claims occurred in Texas, California, Oregon, Kansas and Florida, while the largest decreases occurred in New York, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and South Carolina.
Labor market outlook
Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics note that jobless claims are more likely to increase in the coming months, but the leading indicators available suggest that any increase will be modest. Despite this, layoffs remain extremely low for this stage of the cycle and job growth is expected to remain strong through the first quarter.
Conclusions and future perspectives
Overall, despite the slowdown in GDP growth in the fourth quarter, the US economy continues to show signs of growth. However, it is important to note that future prospects may be influenced by various factors, such as economic policies implemented by the Government and changes in labor market conditions.